Throwing in the napkin (towel, whatever)

Well, since noone is going to read this, I'll make this short and sweet: this blog is suspended indefinitely. Thanks to all who have read this.

Sidenote: a bit about the lunar eclipse and misconceptions

There was a lunar eclipse on March 3, which was seen throughout most of the world, except for parts of the Pacific. I won't explain why the lunar eclipse happens, but many people believe that the Moon doesn't spin. Phil Plait, an astronomer and a blogger (Check his blog out at http://www.badastronomy.com/) proves them wrong:



For more of his videos and science (especially astronomy) easily explained, check out his website and watch his videos. It's worth it.

JetBlue contracts ExpressJet to fly some of its routs

NEWS The regional airline ExpressJet was contracted by JetBlue Airways to operate some of its flights, as JetBlue is experiencing software glitches in their Embraer EMB-190 fleet, Bloomberg.com reports. The EMB-190 was introduced to operate flights that its Airbus A320s cannot, due to their size. The 190s operate some long flights, such as JFK to Bermuda's Hamilton Airport.

Bloomberg.com reports the people that already booked on the flights will receive notice of the change as well as a $25 voucher good for a flight on JetBlue. Bloomerg.com reports that the ExpressJet planes will be operated by its own crews, while JetBlue's crews will be compensated. The planes will fly between Boston and Buffalo, NY and Washington-Dulles, New York's JFK and Columbus, OH and Richmond, VA.

ExpressJet launched an airline of its own, XJet, targetting business travellers travelling to mostly desintations on the West Coast, Midwest, as well as the Southwest. Under an agreement made with Continental Airlines, ExpressJet retained 69 of its ERJ-145, which were previously used by Continental. XJet will be using 44 of the aircraft, Delta Airlines contracted an additional 10, and four for JetBlue.

This is an unusual move for JetBlue, which follows the traditional low-cost structure. Most low-cost airlines don't code-share or contract a regional partner, something that sets low-cost carriers from traditional airlines, like Delta and Continental. However, JetBlue made a code-sharing agreement with Air Lingus, an Irish airline as well as Cape Air for some of its flights to Boston.

Aeroflot-Boeing Deal on Hold

NEWS Boeing's new 787 model, Dreamliner, suffered a bit of a setback. Aeroflot, Russia's national airline, which is 51% owned by the Russian government, put its deal to get 22 Boeing 787 on hold, according to an AP article. The airline was also planning to buy an equal number of Airbus A350s, 787's competitor. Aeroflot asked its major shareholder (Russian government) to approve the deal, but the deadline has already passed, even though a Boeing spokesperson said that they were continuing. Seattle Times states, "Boeing finally wrote off the Aeroflot order 'a month or so ago,' said a Boeing insider familiar with the negotiations."

This latest development may be a result of cooling relations between Russia and the United States. Another article by AP states that Russia wants a larger stake in Airbus' parent, European Aeronautic Defense and Space Co. (EADS). Russian company Vneshtorgbank invested 5% in the company, but French and German heads of state claim that they don't Russia to have a seat on the board of directors.

Boeing's 787 is scheduled to make its first flight later this year, with deliveries starting next year. Two of three Large Cargo Freighters, or modified Boeing 747 freighters are already flightworthy. The planes will carry pieces of the Boeing 787 to Boeing's assembly plant in Seattle. Boeing touts the airplane as its most successful airplane in history with 464 orders as of February 2007. (List of 2007 orders for Boeing + List of orders for previous years)

OPINION Whenever a government gets involved in regulating something it doesn't understand, the consequences could be disastrous. Aeroflot should be a private company, more independent of its parent nation. Foreign policy could bankrupt the company. However, when was the last time Western companies ordered a Russian civilian airliner? We could discuss the reasons why: Russian airliners pollute too much, don't meet US emissions and noise standards, but there is actually more than meets the eye, in my opinion. There is a reason why nations operate local-made aircraft (among other things locally made): national pride. There is also a reason why nations don't operate other aircraft: economic discrimination based on nation of origin.

Regional Jet Battle Heats Up

(Image from Bombardier)










Bombardier Aerospace, based in Canada, launched a larger regional jet, based on the Canadair Regional Jet (CRJ) family, the CRJ-1000. The plane will hold up to 100 seats. Its current largest civilian aircraft, CRJ-900 holds up to 90 people. CRJ-900's latest order was placed by Delta Air Lines. CRJ-1000 was launched by Brit Air, an Air France subsidiary, ordering eight and eight options, and My Way Airlines, headquartered in Italy, which converted 15 of their 19 CRJ-900 orders to CRJ-1000. An undisclosed customer ordered 15, bringing the total order to 38. (Bombardier)

CRJ series directly competes with E-Jets, made by Embraer, a Brazilian company. Unlike Bombardier's large regional jets, Embraer made an entirely new regional jet and reinventing it at the same time. Embraer's series, EMB-170, 175, 190 and 195 seat anywhere from 70 to 118 people, depending on the model. The E-Jets family was launched in 1999 and put into production in 2002.

Bombardier's Canadair is studying its own large regional jet, CSeries, a project which was initially cancelled in 2006, but then relaunched. CSeries will come in two variants, C110, seating up to 110 people and C130, seating 130 people. CSeries may replace aging aircraft, such as DC-9, older Boeing 737 aircraft as well as eclipse Airbus A318 and A319. First entry is planned in 2013.

(Image from Sukhoi)

While Bombardier and Embraer may be the only regional aircraft makers, they may not be the only ones for long. Russia's Sukhoi, which has a legacy of making military and trainer aircraft, is developing its Sukhoi Superjet (SSJ), which was previously known as the Russian Regional Jet (RRJ). The airplane, which will seat up to 78 to 98 people, depending on the model, is part of a collaboration between Sukhoi, Boeing and other aviation companies. The company already has received orders from Aeroflot, among other Russian airlines. The company is now part of United Aircraft Building Corporation, a public company owned by the Russian government (Source)

Flight Global's article looks at the Superjet closer.

Boeing is looking at developing its replacement for its Boeing 737, according to ATW Online. The company may consider two solutions for the replacement, as it looks at its designs. The company may shift its capacity from 90-200 people to 130-230-seat family airplane. The company says that environmental concerns are a top priority and is one of the reasons why it is looking to replace its most popular airliner.

Airlines Hit an "Eddie" in Northeast

NEWS Jetblue announced that it cancelled 23% of its February 17 and 18 flights, due to a snowstorm on Wednesday (AP). The snowstorm forced JetBlue to cancel and delay some of its flights since the storm. According to some FlightAware data, JetBlue leased planes from other companies to get people where they want to go.

JetBlue cancelled service to Richmond, VA; Pittsburgh, PA; Charlotte and Raleigh/Durham, NC; Jacksonville, FL; Austin and Houston, TX; Bermuda; Columbus, OH; Nashville, TN and Portland, ME (JetBlue)

Delta and American Airlines also reported hardships, with flights still being cancelled as a result of the storm. All three airlines (Delta, JetBlue and American) have hub operations in New York and suffered greatly because of the storm. Cincinnati's Enquirer reports two-thirds of Cincinnati's flights were cancelled by Delta on Tuesday, February 13. American Airlines, which has the biggest presence at Kennedy International Airport, said they expected to cancel as many as 40 flights in New York area, AMT reports. Continental Airlines had delays and two cancelled flights at its Newark hub.

OPINION Weather causes delays almost everywhere. It is proven through traffic jams, airport delays, public transportation troubles and so on. The general media is hitting JetBlue hard, mostly (probably) because hundreds of people were stuck on airplanes for hours; some as much as eight hours. I cannot say that this is JetBlue's fault and I cannot say it's not. It was the airline's decision to keep people in the planes, but they based the decision on what the Air Traffic Control was telling them. The airline is run pretty good (same goes for some major carriers too), in my opinion. However, as with anyone, bad days happen, no matter how hard you try not to let them get to you.

Airlines will live through this and it will happen again next year, regrettably.


UPDATE In an interview with David Neeleman, founder and CEO of JetBlue, the New York Times (registration required) reported that the company will set up a system where JetBlue's penalties would be more severe than anything Congress can do. Mr. Neeleman was referring to a 'Bill of Rights for Passengers,' being considered by the U.S. legislature. The introduction of such a bill, which may require airlines to release passengers, if those choose to want to leave, after a certain time on the tarmac. Mr. Neeleman promised a different company after the changes, which he will announce on Tuesday.

JetBlue's delays, Gordon Bethune (former CEO of Continental Airlines) said, were a result of fast growth.

Traces of Recent Liquid Water Found on Mars

(Image by NASA) Victoria Crater's ridges have been fractured by sedimentary bedrock.
(Image by NASA) Gully deposits in Terra Sirenum. Picture on the left was taken in 2001, picture on the right in 2005.

NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) found even more evidence for something fluid on Mars, perhaps water, and even below the surface. MRO's High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment camera took pictures of Candor Chasma, a Martian canyon last year. Dr. Chris Okubo, a geologist at University of Arizona analyzed the images, discovering "mineral alteration by fluids."

However, Space.com's (via Yahoo! News) article questioned the validity of the conclusion that the fluid may be water. Philip Christensen, a researcher at Arizona State University, said the fluid may be also magma. Other researchers say it may be water mixed with liquid carbon dioxide or just liquid carbon dioxide alone.

A liquid flowing underground often deposits sediments, usually iron-rich or clay-like minerals which cement over time and bleach the layers. Erosion later revealed the underground pipes, which is what MRO detected.

Surface liquid water has been detected by NASA's Mars Global Surveyor, which began orbiting Mars in 1997, and its research team. Researchers compared images from Terra Sirenum and Centauri Montes regions, both located in the Martian southern hemisphere and found that something cut through the walls of the craters. (Source)

Water cannot stay liquid on Mars for long because of the low pressure and temperature, but it can stay liquid for some time before it quickly turns into ice or evaporates. MRO's discovery provides scientists a little bit of a solid footing think that Mars may have subterranean water. To space agencies water is crucial to not only finding life, but may also pave way to manned flights to planets that have water or water ice.

Space Shuttle Gets Ready for Launch

(Image from Nasa.gov)

Space Shuttle Atlantis is being moved to the launchpad, to be launched just before dawn on March 15. The mission, STS-117, will deliver and install the third set of solar panels to the station. This will be 28th Atlantis' launch and the first space shuttle launch this year.

Relieving Congestion in New York

(Image from SHoP Architects and New York Magazine)

An article in the New York Magazine wrote how SHoP Architects came up with an idea of completely rebuilding Kennedy International Airport to facilitate a sort of a "moving terminal" environment, where the current definition of terminals, where flyers go to check in, wait for the flight and then fly, is eliminated. Instead, the flyers would board shuttle trains at stations throughout four boroughs (the plan excludes the Bronx) and go directly to their gate. While on the shuttle trains, flyers can check in their baggage, grab a few drinks, go online, since the plan will incorporate some of the latest technologies into the train.

The plan also calls for the reconstruction of the entire airport, encasing it in an environmentally-friendly "garage," which would generate electric power and protect the airplanes from the weather while they are parked at their gate. The plan is not considered by PANYNJ, the agency which controls New York-area airports, but is a suggestion made upon a request by the magazine. (New York Magazine)

The FAA, however, has a more realistic view, according to an article in the New York Times (registration required). The agency has concluded studying and is expected to make a decision soon about rerouting airplane paths coming into not only New York-area airports, but also changing paths of airplanes coming into smaller airports ranging from Delaware to Connecticut.

The agency has four plans in the works: "Modifying existing air space, routing air traffic over the ocean, making additional airspace available for air traffic controllers, or taking no action at all." (New York Times)

Dear readers

Dear readers,

If you read this blog continuously, I'd like to thank you. I will also make an effort of making the aeroRant weekly. I'm sure there is always something to talk about.

Thank you!

New Horizons Probe Closes in on Jupiter

(Picture by NASA, jhuapl.edu)
NEWS
The New Horizons probe is headed for the Pluto system, which it will reach in 2015 and then spend four years in the Kuiper Belt (a belt on the outside of our solar system, containing icy bodies, similar to Pluto).

The probe is already close enough for it to take pictures of Jupiter and its moons. It will scan Jupiter's moon Callisto and then do a fly-by of Jupiter, which will help it gain some speed, using gravity boost. Callisto, like Europa, has an icy surface and may contain a salty ocean below its surface.

The probe has been labeled as NASA's fastest space mission, its launch only a year ago. Last probe to visit Jupiter was Galileo, which took six years to get to the gas giant.

This piece, along with several entries above, was published in The Avion student newspaper, student newspaper of Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.


OPINION
NASA's interplanetary science missions suffered a setback, after President Bush's announcement to go to the Moon and Mars by 2030. New Horizons was almost one of them. In 2001, when NASA's budget was changed to focus more on Mars and not on other missions. Space.com reported on the issue, saying that the main issue was the ever-increasing cost and that "the funding boost given by the Bush administration to the Mars robotic program is where most of the Pluto money went." The mission was planned since the 1979 Voyager "Grand tour" of the Solar system, but was canceled in 2000.

With the help of some 10,000 letters, Ted Nichols' Save the Pluto Mission website and The Planetary Society helping, NASA started soliciting bids that would cost under $500 million months after the mission was canceled. In November of 2001, New Horizons was selected and launched in January 2006. The probe needed to be fast, so that it can reach the Pluto-Charon system by 2020 (it will visit them in 2015) to see if Pluto has an atmosphere. After 2020, Pluto will start getting colder as it heads towards its aphelion, its furthest distance from the Sun and its atmosphere, if it exists, would freeze for centuries.

The fight for New Horizons seems to be unnecessary. NASA needed to launch the probe before a certain date. After launching Voyager 1 and 2, NASA has largely ignored a mission to Pluto due to various reasons. In the process, however, the mission has already gathered headlines and enriched the project. It is the fastest man-made object to leave Earth and carries seven scientific instruments. The original PKE would have only three.

Delta Values Itself $12B After Reorganization

THE NEWS

According to Reuters and MarketWatch, Delta plans to submit its reorganization plan this week, which will have Delta be valued at $10-12 billion after reorganization. This is down from $12-14 billion estimated last week, but definetely more than US Airways is offering ($8 billion).

In November, US Airways announced that it wants to merge with Delta Air Lines for $8 billion. Delta management refused the offer, saying they want to get out of bankruptcy on their own. The offer was presented to Delta's creditors as well, who will hear out Delta's side of the story before making a decision. The deal then will have to be approved by the Justice Department. Some senators, like Johnny Isakson from Georgia, expressed their dissatisfaction with the merger.

THE OPINION

Delta never wanted this merger in the first place. As I mentioned before, I'm not in favor of this merger and it has a lot of obstacles in its way.

Shuttle Discovery Launched

THE NEWS

As the title suggests, the SS Discovery was launched on Saturday, Dec. 9 2006 at 8:47 p.m. The launch was relatively error-free. In an interview with Spaceflight Now, Tony Ceccacci, shuttle's flight director, said they don't "anticipate any large foam shedding or debris impacts." He also added that it's still important to check if there are any and match those with the data on Earth.

The mission, STS-116 is to supply the International Space Station (ISS) as well as attach a truss an rewire some solar panels, which will provide power until STS-117 can install additional solar panels, which will help the station to expand. STS-117, which will be carried by SS Atlantis, has a launch window between Feb. 22 and March 16. Source


THE OPINION

Let me be blunt: I don't like the shuttle. It's not because it's ancient technology (to me, it's not), but because of its size. The shuttle is about 2 million kilograms. In comparison, the Soyuz launch vehicle's mass, including Soyuz, is about 312,000 kilograms. If you launch Soyuz and Progress, you'd be launching about 14,590 kilograms. While the Space Shuttle can lift about twice more, one has to wonder about practicality about the space shuttle.

The Russians launched Zarya - one of the most critical modules of the ISS, which weighs about 19,000 kilograms - with a Proton rocket. Another Proton will deliver the Russian Multipurpose Laboratory Module in 2007 as well as two other systems. Even though Proton is a different rocket than the R-7 used to launch Soyuz and Progress, fact remains that it's still possible to deliver a payload using an unmanned rocket. Plus, NASA is developing its Aries series of rockets, which will act very similar to Russia's Soyuz-Progress program, which, compared to the Space Shuttle, is very successful.

Reusable vehicles are a great thing, but we are not ready for them just yet, mainly because we are using the same technology, enhancing it over and over. There are several replacements for that:

• A single-stage jet-rocket combination - the vehicle would take off using air-breathing propulsion and in space would use a rocket.
  
• A two-stage jet-rocket combination similar to White Knight and Spaceshipone. A jet carrier plane reaches a certain height and launches its rocket payload. Similar plan was developed by the Russians using its An-225 Mriya and Buran (Russian space shuttle) as well other combinations with European spacecraft.
• A space elevator. Oh, sure - it sounds like a crazy idea, but in a few decades, the technology will be ready. Some would say that the terrorists might attack the new tower. While this may happen, we shouldn't let our fears get the best of us. Progress must be made.

JetBlue Will Revive Old TWA Terminal

Picture from http://www.designbuild-network.com/projects/jetblue/

THE NEWS

JetBlue plans to revive the old TWA terminal (Terminal 5) at Kennedy airport for $875 million. The new terminal would handle up to 210 flights and will serve as an international gateway for the airline since the current JetBlue terminal, Terminal 6, doesn't have customs facilities. The terminal plan is a cooperation between Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (PANYNJ), who own airports in New York City's metropolitan area, JetBlue and preservationists.

The Port Authority wants to expand JFK, but Eero Saarinen's had a landmark status and thus couldn't be demolished. The new plan calls for JetBlue's terminal to be built behind the landmark so it wouldn't spoil the view. The new terminal, however, would not be as elaborate and stylish as TWA's terminal. In an interview with BusinessWeek, Richard Smyth said that the design will be very straightforward and there will be nothing sexy about it.


THE OPINION

The problem lies with connecting the structure to the rest of the airport. While AirTrain serves much of the JFK facilities, its Terminal 5/6 stop is much closer to Terminal 6 than 5. It will be a hell of a walk between the two terminals. Also, one has to wonder about its uses: will JetBlue stay in two terminals or just one? Is there enough capacity for JetBlue, American and Delta? All three have hubs at JFK, but only Delta's and JetBlue are growing at a more rapid rate than American, which is the dominant carrier at the airport.

Also, JetBlue has some financial troubles, which are not a major concern, but a concern nevertheless. A declining profit margin, curtailing growth - these may be the signs of a dying carrier. Or some would think so. Ever since its start in the Millennium, JetBlue has captured the hearts and minds of New Yorkers. It has turned into an even more official airline than Continental, partly because it's actually in New York City. As any other business, JetBlue has to grow, so the expanded terminal should serve JetBlue nicely.

Is the new Delta good?

I want my first entry to be about the Delta-US Airways merger. Or should I say US Airways-Delta, since US is the one taking over Delta.

According to Market Watch, US Airways has submitted a bid of $8.5 Billion to take over Delta Air Lines to its creditors (according to US Airways' site, however, their bid remains at $8 Billion). In exchange, "Delta creditors would receive $4.0 billion in cash and 78.5 million shares of US Airways stock with an aggregate value of approximately $4.0 billion based on the closing price of US Airways’ stock as of Nov. 14, 2006." US Airways has also said that the Delta brand will survive

Delta's CEO, Gerald Grinstein and the company's exectuve board has already reacted negatively to the merger, but US Airways' CEO, Doug Parker is persistent, approaching Delta's creditors. Delta is in bankruptcy (never a good sign) and US Airways' offer may be tempting to those who want to get paid sooner. Delta just reported an $88 Million loss for October, but a $52 Million profit for the last quarter.

But since Delta executives have refused the offer - twice, US Airways target is not to woo the airline itself, but the creditors, indicating a hostile takeover. While US Airways has expressed that the merger would be good for both of the companies and the creditors, Delta disagrees and wants to emerge from bankruptcy on its own.

This puts Delta in an interesting position. There may be a few outcomes:
- Delta creditors accept US Airways' bid, resulting in a 10% capacity reduction (but no cities will be eliminated, US press release says) and should save the new airline $1.65 Billion. Since both airlines have an east coast shuttle, Delta Shuttle and US Airways Shuttle, running hourly from Washington DC's Reagan, New York's LaGuardia and Boston's Logan airports, the new airline would sell one of the east coat shuttles. Airtran has already shown interest in that part. Anyone up for AirTran shuttle?
- Delta creditors could accept the bid, but the federal authorities could say no. This case is more probably, since the new carrier would have 20% market share in the US and a lot of cities in the east might see a 70% dominance in their market.
- And finally, Delta creditors could reject the bid, possibly resulting in shares for both airlines tumbling.

In any case, bigger is not always better. There are currently 6 "legacy" carriers, or the old-age airlines: American, Northwest, Delta, Continental, US Airways and ATA. The merger would reduce the carriers to 5. A merger between any of these possibly will happen, especially due to pressures from outside partners. For example, Air France-KLM expressed interest in some kind of Delta-Northwest merger. This may be important to Air France-KLM, since Northwest is a strategic partner of KLM and they might want to see a merger that's similar to Air France-KLM. Air France-KLM, Delta and Northwest are all part of the SkyTeam alliance, while US Airways is not.

According to Houston Chronicle, Continental's former CEO Gordon Bethune has expressed interest in having Continental acquiring United. He as well as Air France-KLM indicated that some kind of merger between legacy carriers has to happen.

Now, let's take a look how this may affect low-cost carriers. Airtran has already expressed interest in acquiring the east coast shuttle, while Southwest has expressed its interest in acquiring slots in some cities that the new airline would have to give up. JetBlue, has been relatively quiet, which is surprising, considering its enormous operations at Kennedy and Logan and may indicate that JetBlue may be left out of the assets deals. However, Neeleman did mention that the merger or any type of consolidation is good for JetBlue.

US Airways also did not consider one of the important assets of a merger: the loyalty of the employees. Under the new arrangement, US Airways will gain more than they will lose. The new company will have different unions, which may conflict with each other.

As one company, Delta and US Airways have too many overlapping routes. Their hubs are too close and some may have to shut down. A perfect example is US hub in Philadelphia and Delta's hub in JFK. Delta's international and especially the Atlantic network at JFK shuns US Airways's international network at Philadelphia International.

US Airways is just emerging from its merger with America West. In fact Doug Parker, was America West's CEO and initiated the merger. Now, a year later, the company wants to merge with another company. Question arises here - are they ready? I don't think so. They have yet to prove that they are profitable on a year-to-year basis, like Southwest and Continental have done.

All these factors may result either in a dysfunctional business or the two airlines may just go their own ways.

Welcome to my blog

Hi. The goal of this blog is to express my opinions and prediction on the aerospace industry. Please note that I am in no way a professional, but just a college student, who is very much interested in aviation and space. If you like my blog, thank you; if you don't, I'm sorry you feel that way. Either way, you can express yourself through commenting.

Thank you,

Alex